At the annual UCT Distinguished Alumni Lecture, hosted by the Development and Alumni Department , where Emeritus Associate Professor Richard Calland presented on “South Africa’s second transition and the ‘GNU’: miracle or mirage” there wasn’t a spare seat in the auditorium. Clearly, UCT alumni and friends were eager to hear Prof Calland’s predictions about the way forward with the government of national unity. 

A prominent political analyst, and a columnist for the Mail & Guardian newspaper, Prof Calland spoke about how three decades after South Africa’s transition to democracy, the country is now well into its ‘second transition’ – the end of three decades of one-party dominance. Having convincingly won the previous six national elections, the ANC decisively lost its majority in May 2024. This represented a watershed moment, ushering in a new era of power-sharing. The rise of MK signalled that South Africa was joining the legion of countries facing the rise of rugged populism. However, after a short but intense period of negotiation, a centralist so-called Government of National Unity (GNU) emerged. His lecture considered the questions of whether the GNU is a miracle or a mirage and whether the centre will continue to hold. He also looked at whether a coalition government can deliver the tangible change so urgently needed and what the longer-term prognosis for democratic consolidation is. 

He discussed the implications of power-sharing, the inevitable dance between the parties and said that unpredictable events could throw the GNU off. Prof Calland said that the current situation provides genuine uncertainty for political analysts. He stressed the need for succession planning and concluded by suggesting what is likely to be raised at SONA in February 2025, ten months after the national elections and the subsequent creation of the GNU.